Recent Publications
Spatiotemporal causal inference with arbitrary spillover and carryover effects
A desire to demonstrate resolve motivates insurgent attacks more than revenge or grievance in Iraq.
Working Paper 2025
Survey estimates of wartime mortality
Accounting for political and strategic incentives in surveys produces more accurate estimates of wartime mortality.
Working Paper 2025
In diplomacy, groups rely more on first impressions and update less from signals than individuals.
American Journal of Political Science 2025